Ray Kurzweil predicts A.I. will reach human-level intelligence by 2029. Courtesy Kurzweil Technologies.
Ray Kurzweil, computer scientist, inventor and futurist—featured on this year’s A.I. Power Index—has spent decades forecasting the trajectory of A.I. As principal researcher at Google and co-founder of robotics startup Beyond Imagination, he continues to shape both A.I. research and practical innovation. In 2024, he released The Singularity Is Nearera follow-up to his 2005 best-seller, predicting that A.I. will merge with human consciousness and enable medical breakthroughs capable of overcoming disease and even aging by the 2030s.
“Hollywood portrays A.I. as an alien invasion,” Kurzweil tells Observer. “I don’t see it that way. A.I. is evolving from within us and will reflect our values, knowledge, and beliefs.” From mechanical machines extending human strength to intelligent systems extending our cognition, Kurzweil sees A.I. as the next stage in human evolution. Beyond Imagination recently raised $100 million in Series B funding to develop humanoid robots, while at Google, Kurzweil influences A.I. strategy in natural language processing and machine learning. His predictions, once considered speculative, are now widely discussed in research labs and boardrooms.
What’s one assumption about A.I. that you think is dead wrong?
Hollywood portrays A.I. as an alien invasion coming to destroy us. People think A.I. is a rival for survival. I don’t see it that way. Artificial intelligence is evolving from within us and will reflect our values, knowledge and beliefs. We have been creating and merging with technology since the beginning of time. Ever since we picked up a stick to reach a higher branch, we’ve used tools to extend our reach, both physically and mentally. Just like we built mechanical machines to extend our muscles to build roads and bridges, we’re now building intelligent machines to extend our brains.
Merging with A.I. is the next step in human evolution. The lines between the digital and physical world are already blurring. Think about how difficult it would be to move through the world today without your smartphone. With our phones, we have all of human knowledge at our fingertips. The amount of computation that once fit into a building now fits in our pockets and will soon fit into a blood cell and be far more powerful. This is how we are going to merge with technology. A.I. is going to enhance all of our capabilities: intelligence, humor, creativity and compassion.
If you had to pick one moment in the last year when you thought, “This changes everything” about A.I., what was it?
Twenty-six years ago, in my book The Age of Spiritual Machines, I predicted A.I. would reach human-level intelligence by 2029. Stanford University was so concerned that they organized an international conference to assess my prediction. Several hundred A.I. experts from around the world came, and 80 percent agreed that a computer would match human performance eventuallybut most thought it would take 100 years.
A lot has happened since then. Today, consensus among experts has fallen in line with my original prediction, and some say it will happen even sooner. So, while I can’t say that I am surprised by our progress, I can say that I have been delighted by the advancements A.I. has made in the past few years. We have recently reached a new level of computational power that is enabling A.I. to learn just about everything in every field.
What’s something about A.I. development that keeps you up at night that most people aren’t talking about?
What keeps me up at night isn’t fear—it’s excitement. A.I. is enabling massive biological simulations that can rapidly test billions of possible molecular sequences to find optimal medicines. This is how Moderna found the Covid-19 vaccine in two days. The same approach will be used to find cures for diseases like cancer and Alzheimer’s. As computing power grows exponentially, we will simulate organelles, cells, tissues, organs and eventually the whole body. Instead of risky, expensive, slow clinical trials, we’ll simulate trials digitally—a thousand times faster and tailored to each individual. By 2032, A.I.-driven medical breakthroughs are going to lead us to Longevity Escape Velocity.
Right now, as you live through a year, you use up a year of your longevity. However, if you’re diligent about healthcare and nutrition, I estimate you will get back as much as four months per year today from scientific breakthroughs. In other words, you will only lose about eight months of longevity in a year. However, as we apply A.I. to medicine, it is advancing exponentially, so by roughly 2032, when you live through a year, you’ll get back an entire year from scientific progress. And beyond that point, you will get back more than a year for every year you live, so you’ll be going backwards in time, as far as your health is concerned.
