The Mandalorian & Grogu at Celebration Stage during Star Wars Celebration Japan Day 1 on April 18, 2025, in Chiba, Japan. Christopher Jue/Getty Images for Disney
There’s a scene in director Rian Johnson’s still volcanically polarizing Star Wars: The Last Jedi where protagonist Rey is confronted by her own reflection in a Force-swirling cave on the mystical planet Ach-To. In Johnson’s own wordsthe scene is designed so that Rey sees “who she has to connect with and answer to is herself.” Nearly a decade later, that sentiment has expanded beyond the psyche of the franchise’s characters to encapsulate the very owner of the property itself: The Walt Disney Company.
In an ideal world, the recently released first teaser for 2026’s The Mandalorian & Groguthe first Star Wars theatrical film since 2019, would lay the groundwork for a new era of creative blockbusters set in a galaxy far, far away. But instead, the multi-parsec-long laundry list of scrapped projects that precede it serves as a microcosm for Disney’s recent over-reliance on recycling the hits. Across the Magic Kingdom’s war chest of blockbuster intellectual property, major franchises are showing clear signs of fatigue. Repurposing a hit TV series for the big screen may work well for The Mandalorian & Grogu. But the move highlights a bigger issue facing Disney, despite its successand the industry at large: the difficulty in sustaining long-running brand quality with fresh and urgent big-screen storytelling in an era of growing audience apathy.
Disney’s franchise fatigue
The problem with repeatedly retreating to the perceived safety of a known commodity is the inevitability of diminishing returns.
Ever since 2019’s The Rise of Skywalker arrived to global disappointment, Star Wars has been confined to its own corner of Disney+ as a purely small-screen series. While that helped drive rapid subscription growth for the Mouse House’s fledgling streamer over the years, the strategy has undoubtedly hit a wall.
First seasons of Ahsoka (67.8 million), The Acolyte (29.7 million) and Skeleton Crew (5.8 million) delivered far fewer U.S. viewing hours than earlier series premiere seasons like The Book of Boba Fett (79.1 million), Andor (77.4 million) and Obi-Wan Kenobi (76.4 million), according to Nielsen data and analyst Entertainment Strategy Guy. Even flagship series The Mandalorianthe launching pad for this upcoming spin-off movie, saw its third season drop roughly 10 percent in Nielsen viewership from Season 2 while also experiencing a dip in audience demand, per Parrot Analytics. Even more existentially threatening is the possibility that audiences might feel less urgent theatrical intent for the Star Wars brand after roughly 15 TV series.
And it’s not just Star Wars that is struggling to match prior levels of enthusiasm. Disappointing box office results for recent Marvel Cinematic Universe entries Captain America: Brave New World and Thunderbolts* reflect tepid audience interest in lesser-known characters. The further down the franchise reaches into its bench of names, the harder it is to strike up general recognizability.
The surprisingly poor legs for The Fantastic Four: First Steps (2.3x domestic multiplier) raise serious doubts about the X-Men reboot’s ability to course correct (Deadpool & Wolverine notwithstanding). Greenlight Analytics, where I work as Director of Insights & Content Strategy, shows that MCU intent conversion—how effectively the franchise converts audience awareness into theatrical interest—has steadily declined since 2022. On the small screen, Daredevil: Born Again failed to make the Nielsen streaming charts this year, while Ironheart also disappointed commercially.
The struggles across Walt Disney Animation and Pixar—Wish, Strange World, Lightyearand Elio all flopped—further illuminate the clear pattern of vulnerability across Disney’s major IP pillars. Despite ranking second in box office market share so far this year, Disney’s streaming services account for less than 5 percent of monthly TV usage, per Nielsen. There exists a disconnect between mediums.
Beyond Star Wars and Marvel
Though we’ll heed LL Cool J’s advice and not call it a comeback, Disney has recovered from cold streaks in the past. The studio enjoyed an animated renaissance across the late 1980s and 1990s by striking gold with The Little Mermaid, Aladdin, The Lion King and more. And, of course, Bob Iger’s first tenure as CEO was defined by his industry-shifting acquisitions that brought Pixar, Marvel and Lucasfilm into the fold in the first place. But outside of Marvel and Star Wars, Disney has not produced a live-action, no-doubt-about-it big-screen hit franchise since Pirates of the Caribbean.
To Disney’s credit, the studio has tried to address this. But The Sorcerer’s Apprentice, John Carter, The Prince of Persia, The Lone Ranger, The BFG, Tomorrowland and A Wrinkle in Time all bombed while more recent-ish attempts such as Artemis Fowl, Mulan and Jungle Cruise were stunted by pandemic headwinds, creative issues or both. On streaming, only Percy Jackson has emerged as a breakout live-action hit beyond Star Wars/Marvel.
The hope was that the acquisition of Fox’s properties would help fill in some of these gaps. Yet Avatarfor as monstrously lucrative as it is at the box office, endures long stretches between releases and has no franchise extension beyond the films and its attraction at Disney World (which is admittedly pretty damn cool). Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes ($397 million) was the lowest-grossing entry in the franchise since Tim Burton and Mark Wahlberg’s 2001 debacle. We’ll see how Predator: Badlands performs in November after the franchise was relegated to streaming for recent releases. And while Alien Romulus ($351 million) breathed new life into the franchise—likely buoying the successful FX/Hulu series Alien: Earth—Disney can’t count on subsequent films scoring more than $110 million from the unreliable Chinese market.
What’s the next big thing?
Disney is reportedly seeking out original concepts to appeal to Gen Z men (18-28), including “splashy global adventures and treasure hunts, as well as seasonal fare like films for the Halloween corridor.” At the very least, this signals a self-awareness that trotting out various versions of the same IP over and over again cannot efficiently power Disney’s famous flywheel forever.
Following the success of Five Nights at Freddy’s and A Minecraft Movieit’s difficult to see how Disney’s 10 percent ownership stake in video game company Epic Games doesn’t result in a Fortnite movie in the near future. Next year will see the studio release a new Sam Raimi horror film, an original Pixar concept and a sci-fi apocalyptic thriller from 20th Century to pair along with more expected releases such as The Mandalorian & Grogu, Avengers: Doomsday, Toy Story 5the live-action Moana and Ice Age 6.
The latter group will undoubtedly bring in big numbers at the box office. But it also exposes how Disney’s foundation is built on decades-old stories. Fatigue is real, and competitors are catching up. Can Disney revitalize its creative pipeline with updated takes before the old reliables dry out? We’ll soon find out.
